Chicagoland Matches Miami for Hottest Rental Market, Fueled by Rise of the Midwest

Key Takeaways:

• The national RCI score stands at 75.8 during the busiest time for moving, with significantly more renters choosing to renew compared to last summer.
• The Midwest’s reinvented economy has helped propel Chicagoland to the hottest renting spot in the U.S. this peak season with Miami’s supremacy shaking.
• The Louisville, KY, metro area is the top emerging rental market; Queens and Brooklyn are also getting hotter, driven by New York City’s strong economy.
• Madison, WI, is the nation’s hottest small rental market as many professionals are looking for better opportunities in America’s heartland.

Searching for rental apartments during peak rental season is never an easy task, but this summer’s rental market is seeing surprising twists. Specifically, the Midwest’s transformation from its “Rust Belt” past, driven by a diversified economy in tech and manufacturing, is attracting budget-conscious renters seeking affordability, amenities, and nature — in short, the persisting trend of “hipsturbia.”

This surge in demand has propelled suburban Chicago to the top of the list, challenging Miami’s long-held dominance in the U.S. rental market. Moreover, Florida’s appeal is waning as the Northeast emerges as the most competitive region for renters during this peak moving season.

So, with the apartment market reaching a boiling point this summer, we wanted to find out what other options were out there for Americans looking for a new place to call home in peak rental season. To do this, we used five relevant metrics in terms of rental competitiveness:

• the number of days apartments were vacant
• the percentage of apartments that were occupied by renters
• the number of prospective renters competing for an apartment
• the percentage of renters who renewed their leases
• the share of new apartments completed recently

Next, based on these metrics, we measured the U.S. rental market’s competitiveness by calculating a Rental Competitiveness Index (RCI) during the busiest time for moving. The national RCI score is currently 75.8, meaning that the apartment market in the U.S. overall is very competitive in peak rental season.

Despite more options for renters, high renewal rates keep apartment competition intense nationwide

The U.S. rental market is still feeling the effects of the recent surge in new apartments opened nationwide, with about 30% of the 137 markets analyzed showing signs of softening compared to last year’s peak rental season. Accordingly, the overall occupancy rate has slightly decreased to 93.7%, down from 94% one year ago. At the same time, vacant apartments stay on the market for an average of 39 days, which is two days longer than one year prior, and there are slightly fewer renters competing for each available unit (nine now compared to 10 last summer).

Now, the share of newly built apartments makes up 0.71% of the nation’s housing supply, which is slightly lower than the previous year. Additionally, 62% of existing apartment-dwellers renewed their leases in peak rental season, up from 60.5% one year ago.

In many cases, renters prefer to renew (as opposed to searching for a new place) during the moving rush because it helps them avoid rent increases that typically come with signing a new lease while potentially getting renewal incentives. This choice often helps renters save money on moving costs, application fees and security deposits. Choosing to renew their leases also allows renters — especially families with children in school — to remain settled for longer. Of course, home prices and mortgage rates are also keeping potential homebuyers in the rental market longer.

Looking at the competitiveness of U.S. regions during the busiest time for moving, the Northeast leads with an RCI score of 80.4, followed very closely by the Midwest with a score of 80. The Mid-Atlantic region comes next with an RCI score of 78.4, which is on par with Florida’s score. They’re followed by the South (RCI score 76.7); California (RCI score 73.4); the Southeast (RCI score 73); the West (RCI score 72.9); and the Southwest (RCI score 72.6). The Pacific Northwest has the lowest RCI score at 70.6 during peak rental season.

Watch out, Miami! Suburban Chicago joins as the hottest hotspot for renting this peak season

In a surprising turn, Suburban Chicago has tied Miami for the title of the nation’s hottest rental market during the peak season, both boasting an RCI score of 91.3. This signals a shift in America’s rental landscape, with competition intensifying in the Midwest and Miami’s long-held supremacy facing a serious challenge.

In this case, Suburban Chicago’s surge to the top of the most competitive rental markets in the U.S. is fueled by a combination of factors linked to the heartland’s growing economy that make the metro area highly desirable for renters, yet extremely challenging for those looking for apartments.

Boosted by the growing trend of hipsturbia and easy access to the Windy City’s job market and attractions, places like Naperville, IL; Schaumburg, IL; Oak Brook, IL; Evanston, IL; Deerfield, IL; Arlington Heights, IL; Glenview, IL; Barrington, IL; and Wheaton, IL, have made securing an apartment in the area extremely difficult during the moving frenzy.

The competition is intense: Vacant units are typically leased within 33 days (almost one week faster than the national benchmark), and each available apartment attracts 16 hopeful renters, on average. To make matters worse, Suburban Chicago’s occupancy rate rose to 95.6% in peak rental season, especially as 69.5% of tenants renewed their leases (up from 67.3% this time last year).

With the Windy City among the top 5 hottest markets, finding a rental in Chicagoland is incredibly tough

Securing a new place to call home in this thriving part of Illinois is already a challenge, but the fact that Chicago ranks as the fifth-most competitive rental market in the U.S. (RCI score 85.4) only adds fuel to the fire in the search for apartments. This further solidifies Chicagoland’s status as a highly desirable, but fiercely competitive area for renters this summer. Here, the area’s high appeal among apartment-seekers is largely fueled by a recent surge in corporate relocations and expansions, which has helped Chicago make an impressive jump of 11 spots —  up from 16th place just a year ago.

Furthermore, as the third-largest city in the U.S. and a major Midwestern commercial hub, Chicago is a magnet for a mix of renters ranging from college graduates and career-focused professionals to families from all across the U.S. —  and that’s even with its relatively high cost of living.

That said, Chicago’s rental market is sizzling hot, and the modest increase of 0.52% in new apartments is far from keeping up with the demand for housing. At the same time, more apartment-dwellers chose to renew their leases during the peak rental season (58.7%, up from 57.5% one year ago), which contributed to an overall occupancy rate of 94.7%. Typically, vacant apartments in Chicago are filled within a month, with 14 prospective renters competing for each available unit.

Miami’s rental market mirrors the Sunshine State’s fading appeal during the peak season for moving

Miami’s reign as the hottest rental market is hanging by a thread: A year-over-year decline in nearly all competitiveness metrics — except for the share of new units built, a testament to the metro’s construction frenzy — mirrors Florida’s softening popularity among apartment-hunters in the peak season for renting.

Plus. although Miami’s housing supply has grown by 1.02% in recent months, this increase is still less than half of the new apartments that opened at the same time last year. Even with this input of new apartments, 71.5% of those already renting chose to renew their leases this busy summer (down from 73% this time last year).

With less than 4% of existing units available for rent throughout the metro, vacant apartments in Miami are filled within 32 days, on average, and draw an average of 18 applicants per available unit — seven fewer than this time last year.

Milwaukee, Bridgeport-New Haven rank among the top rental markets as insufficient supply fuels intense competition

Milwaukee is the third-most competitive rental market this peak season with an RCI score of 90.7. Its affordability compared to pricier coastal cities attracts young professionals and entrepreneurs seeking career opportunities in manufacturing, tech and healthcare within a thriving Midwest region.

But, finding apartments in the area is tough for both newcomers and local renters. Accordingly, this high demand for apartments in Milwaukee has driven nearly 70% of existing renters to renew their leases during the moving frenzy, resulting in an occupancy rate of 95.5%. Additionally, newly built rentals represent a mere 0.36% of the metro’s housing supply, further limiting options for apartment-hunters. Consequently, vacant apartments are leased rapidly — often within a month — with an average of 14 applicants per unit.

Next, Bridgeport-New Haven, CT, stands as the fourth most competitive rental market during peak season with an RCI score of 85.8. This metro area has been steadily gaining prominence throughout the last 12 months, moving up from eighth place in peak season 2023 to narrowly miss the podium this summer — and it’s easy to see why: The Bridgeport-New Haven metro area benefits from its proximity to the opportunities and attractions in New York City, thereby attracting professionals and intensifying competition for apartments.

However, with no new apartments opened recently in this supply-constrained area, 61.8% of those already renting in Bridgeport-New Haven decided to stay put during the moving frenzy, which drove the metro’s occupancy rate to a high 95.6%. Consequently, there are now 16 hopeful renters competing for each vacant unit, which stays on the market for 37 days, on average.

Louisville, Detroit, NYC boroughs have become significantly more competitive than last summer

Looking back one year ago, several metros in our analysis have seen remarkable increases in their RCI scores. By and large, this was driven by shrinking vacancy rates and increased lease renewal rates, coupled with more applicants per vacant unit.

Specifically, the Louisville, KY, metro area is the top emerging rental market with its RCI score gaining 13.7 points from last summer to reach 78.6 in peak rental season. With a strong job market — spearheaded by three Fortune 500 companies and the University of Louisville — and an affordable cost of living, apartments in Louisville are an attractive option for renters, especially those looking to save money compared to more expensive metro areas.

Likewise, Sacramento, CA, has experienced a 12.9-point uptick in its RCI score year-over-year, which now stands at 73.5. Notably, renting in Sacramento is still more affordable compared to other major California cities as the cost of living here is 13% lower than the state average. This makes it an attractive option for those priced out of the Bay Area or Los Angeles.

On the opposite coast and fueled by New York City’s economy, Queens, NY, has become increasingly hot, as well, mainly due to its close proximity to Manhattan and more affordable apartments. To that point, Queens’ RCI score increased by 12.8 points year-over-year to reach 71.5 in peak rental season. Similarly, Brooklyn, NY, saw a significant 10.3-point increase to bring its RCI score to a whopping 82 this busy summer.

Sandwiched between the two New York City boroughs is the Piedmont Triad (ranked #33) in North Carolina, whose RCI score gained 12.6 points year-over-year to reach 75.8 during the moving frenzy. This affordable area (encompassing the cities of Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point) is experiencing a surge in job growth and economic development. As a result, this is drawing in more renters, which, in turn, is fueling the demand for housing in the area.

At the same time, Detroit’s RCI score gained 10.3 points since last summer to reach 80.6. Once known as America’s automotive powerhouse, the metro has successfully diversified its economy by focusing on sectors like technology, health care and manufacturing. This shift has drawn a growing number of renters looking for both affordable housing and big-city vibes.

Budget-minded renters are ditching Florida’s luster for the Midwest’s affordability

While Florida continues to draw people in, the high cost of living in many cities across the state is pushing many renters to look elsewhere — even as far as America’s heartland. Thus, with its affordability, growing job market and easy access to the great outdoors, the Midwest boasts nine entries among the nation’s top 20 hottest rental markets this peak season.

Following Chicagoland and Milwaukee, Omaha, NE, (RCI score 83) is the fourth-most competitive renting spot in the Midwest and #7 in the national ranking. Its appeal largely stems from a growing population fueled by several universities and colleges in the area, along with the Offutt Air Force Base — a major employer in the metro — as well as several Fortune 500 companies that attract highly skilled professionals.

Even with a recent 1.15% uptick in new apartments, 65.2% of those already renting in Omaha and its suburbs renewed their leases in peak rental season, up from 63.5% last summer, and leaving less than 5% of rentals available to apartment-hunters. On average, vacant apartments become occupied within 32 days here, with each available unit attracting 13 applicants.

Next up is a trio of metro areas in the lower peninsula of Michigan — Grand Rapids, Detroit, and Lansing-Ann Arbor — showcasing the state’s rising popularity among renters. Ranked 11th nationally with an RCI score of 80.9, the Grand Rapids metro area thrives on a diverse and expanding economy attracting recent graduates and young professionals who want to be close to major Midwestern cities like Detroit and Chicago.

However, despite the recent 1.13% increase in the supply of apartments, a whopping 70.1% of those renting in Grand Rapids renewed during the moving frenzy, leaving less than 5% of units available for those seeking new homes in the area — that’s up 2.4% compared to this time last year. Consequently, there are now 10 hopeful renters competing for each vacant unit, which is leased within 35 days, on average.

Extremely close on Grand Rapids’ heels comes the Detroit metro area, which made its debut in the top 20 by landing directly in 12th place (RCI score 80.6). Detroit’s ongoing revitalization — with new businesses and residential areas, coupled with emerging opportunities and a lower cost of living — is steadily attracting newcomers, including professionals relocating from pricier coastal cities.

This increased demand for apartments for rent in Detroit, combined with a lack of new construction, has led to intense competition among renters. What's more, nearly 70% of apartment-dwellers opted to renew their leases in peak rental season for a 2% increase from one year ago and resulting in a 93.8% occupancy rate (up from 93.3% one year ago). There are also 10 renters vying for every vacant unit (slightly more than last summer), which typically leases within 41 days.

In the middle of The Mitten, the Lansing-Ann Arbor metro area’s RCI score of 80 helped it secure the 16th spot in our ranking. Here, the Midwest's marked transition from its “Rust Belt” past to a tech and advanced manufacturing hub is creating a ripple effect on the Lansing-Ann Arbor apartment market, as well.

With very few rentals opened recently, more people chose to renew during the moving frenzy, leaving fewer options for apartment-hunters in the area. Specifically, 66.3% of existing renters opted to stay put this peak season, up from 64.1% this time last year, driving the occupancy rate to 94.2% (slightly higher than last summer). Consequently, it only takes 38 days for the average vacant apartment to be filled, and each available unit draws in eight applicants.

Closing out the list of Midwestern metros in the top 20 hottest rental markets in peak season are Kansas City, MO, and Cincinnati. Both areas saw increased lease renewal rates year-over-year, despite their housing stocks increasing by 0.72% and 0.76%, respectively, in recent months.

New York City's allure sparks a rental frenzy across the Northeast this summer

The Northeast is a very competitive spot for apartment-seekers, with six major metros ranking among the top 20 hottest rental markets this peak season. This region — home to major economic hubs such as New York City (which is seeing a revival as many workers return to offices), Boston, and Philadelphia — offers plenty of jobs in sectors like finance, education and technology, to attract a steady influx of highly skilled professionals. Plus, the high cost of homeownership in many Northeastern metros makes renting a more attractive option for both locals and newcomers.

However, the region continues to grapple with a shortage of apartments. In North Jersey, for instance, new apartments only account for 0.38% of the local supply of rentals, which is a significant drop from 1.91% one year ago and makes it the sixth-hottest rental market in the U.S. and second in the region. As a result, fewer than 5% of apartments in North Jersey are vacant, especially since almost 70% of renters renewed during peak season. Vacant units are filled quickly, often within 37 days, and there are 13 renters competing for each available apartment.

Further down the Northeast Corridor, Suburban Philadelphia stands out as the eighth hottest rental market nationwide and third in the region during the moving rush (RCI score 82.6). It's worth noting here that the growing life sciences sector attracts talent seeking better options away from the big city. It helps that many places in Suburban Philadelphia — such as Cherry Hill, NJ; Wilmington, DE; Norristown, PA; Trenton, NJ; and King of Prussia, PA — feature walkable town centers near transit stations, providing easy access to Philly.

Here, again, there are not enough apartments to meet the demand: The 0.34% uptick in new apartments barely made a dent in Suburban Philadelphia’s housing stock. With very few options available, nearly three-quarters of renters (74.8%) chose to renew, leaving a mere 5.2% of units available for apartment-hunters. It comes as no surprise, then, that vacant apartments stay on the market for 40 days, on average, with 10 people competing for each one.

Still, it’s the Big Apple’s diverse economy that fuels competition for apartments in this part of the Northeast — especially among techies and financiers who want to minimize commute times. To that end, Manhattan is the ninth-hottest rental market in the U.S. and fourth in the region (RCI score 82.2). Moreover, the borough has seen almost zero new apartments opened in recent months, prompting 65.8% of renters here to renew, which pushed the occupancy rate to a high 95.4% (up 0.7% since last summer). Consequently, vacant apartments in Manhattan are typically snapped up in a mere 37 days, and each available unit attracts nine eager applicants.

For this reason, renters seeking better options not too far from New York City’s beating heart often turn to Brooklyn (RCI score 82). However, they face similar levels of competition in this borough, which ranks as the 10th-hottest rental market in the U.S. and the fifth in the Northeast. Even with the 0.75% increase in the borough’s housing supply, 69.5% of apartment-dwellers chose not to move in peak season. That’s a staggering 3.3% increase in renewal rates year-over-year, leaving less than 4% of apartments available on the market. Granted, vacant apartments in Brooklyn take three days longer to fill than in Manhattan, but the competition remains fierce with 14 applicants per each available apartment, up from nine last summer.

Following at a significant distance is Greater Boston, which ranks 18th in the U.S. and sixth in the region with an RCI score just shy of 80. Here, apartment-hunters have more options available thanks to the recent 0.75% increase in the housing stock, which is more than double the share of new apartments renters could pick from one year prior.

Yet, even with this influx of new apartments, more renters chose to renew in innovation-driven places like Cambridge; Newton; Waltham; Lexington; Burlington; Lowell; Sommerville; and Boston, of course. Specifically, the area’s lease renewal rate stands at 61.7% in the peak season for renting, which is up 2.5% year-over-year, leaving about 5% of rentals available during the moving rush. Thus, vacant apartments in Greater Boston are leased within 37 days, on average, and each unit draws in 13 renters.

Apartments in Madison, WI, rent the fastest in the U.S. but the Northeast dominates the small markets ranking

Further strengthening its reputation as a prime region for apartment hunters during the moving rush, the Northeast counts seven spots in the nation’s top 20 most competitive small rental markets. It’s followed by the Midwest with five entries and the South with four markets.

Spurred by remote work, many renters are ditching other parts of the country — including pricey coastal cities — in search of better deals in suburban-like locations deeper inland. To that point, Madison, WI, is the nation’s hottest small rental market during the peak season for moving (RCI score 90.3).

Madison’s unemployment rate is exceptionally low at 2.7% (which is half the national average), spurred by jobs in government and education. Additionally, Madison has a growing reputation as a biotech incubator and hub for startups, which helps it attract plenty of highly skilled workers.

Even so, the area is so undersupplied that the recent 1.21% increase in apartments is not enough to keep up with the high demand for housing: The metro’s lease renewal rate stands at 68.5% (slightly higher than one year ago), pushing the vacancy rate to a very high 96.3% during the moving rush. Under these circumstances, vacant apartments in Madison are leased faster than anywhere in the country, often within 23 days, and each unit attracts a whopping 17 applicants.

The nation’s second-hottest small rental market is Fayetteville, AR (RCI score 89.7). This is mainly driven by a combination of factors, including record enrollment numbers at both the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville and Arkansas Tech University in nearby Russellville, AR, as well as the presence of major employers like Walmart's headquarters in Bentonville.

To make matters worse for renters, only 0.60% of the total housing supply in the metro consists of newly built apartments, which is slightly lower than last summer. Faced with very limited options, a staggering 72.8% of those renting in the area renewed their leases, pushing the occupancy rate to a sky-high 96.5% during the moving frenzy. Consequently, apartments in the Fayetteville metro area fly off the shelves in about 24 days, on average. Each vacant unit attracts 13 prospective renters.

Lehigh Valley, PA, ranks third among the most competitive small markets in the U.S. with its RCI score of 87.4 reflecting a severe housing shortage exacerbated by zero new apartments opened recently. Home to several universities, its strategic location close to major cities (like Philadelphia and New York) makes it an attractive place to live and work, especially for younger professionals.

However, with very few options available during the moving rush, Lehigh Valley’s lease renewal rate stands at a whopping 79.6% — the second-highest in the U.S. after Central Jersey’s astounding 80.6% — leaving less than 4% of units available for apartment-seekers. On average, there are 14 renters competing for each vacant unit, which is typically leased within 38 days.

Back in the South, Little Rock, AR, claims the fourth position as a sought-after rental market with an RCI score of 86.5. Here, the recent arrival of giant retailers Amazon and Costco has further boosted the local economy, creating a ripple effect on the rental market. But, the modest 0.85% increase in new apartments falls short of meeting the surging demand, resulting in a high renewal rate of 71.6% among existing renters and driving occupancy to an impressive 95.7%.

This heightened demand means increased competition for available units, with 13 prospective renters vying for each apartment as compared to nine last summer. As a result, vacant units are being filled at a rapid pace, typically within 25 days.

Meanwhile, Palm Beach County stands out as the only Florida spot making an appearance among the top 20 small rental markets, landing in eighth place nationally (RCI score 84.1). Encompassing coveted places like West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Delray Beach, and Boynton Beach, the county continues to attract newcomers seeking Florida's climate and lifestyle, but without the financial hassle that comes with renting in the Miami area.

Here again, despite a recent 0.94% increase in new units, apartments in Palm Beach County are so scarce that significantly more renters renewed during the peak rental season compared to one year ago (67.7% vs. 62.3%). Consequently, the occupancy rate climbed to 95.5% from 94.5% last summer. Vacant apartments are also leased two days faster than one year ago (often within 32 days), and there are more renters competing for each unit (15 now vs. 13 at this time last year).

Suburban-like small markets across the U.S. have become more competitive in just 1 year, led by Macon, GA

Located about 84 miles south of Atlanta, Macon, GA, ranks #1 among the small-sized rental markets that experienced the biggest increases in their RCI scores year-over-year, mainly due to its affordable lifestyle compared to the big city. To be exact, Macon’s RCI score gained an impressive 12.2 points since last summer to reach 75.9, placing the metro in 35th place in our ranking.

Up north, Worcester-Springfield, MA, saw its RCI score increase from 73.4 last year to a very high 85.1 during the moving frenzy, to rank sixth in the top 20 hottest small rental markets. That said, apartments in the metro are significantly more affordable compared to what Boston has to offer.

Returning to the Atlanta area, the rental market in Athens, GA, got significantly hotter year-over-year with its RCI score standing at 75.8 after a 10.3-point increase. Following a similar pattern to Macon, Athens offers better deals for renters. Plus, the University of Georgia — with a student population of over 40,000 — creates a consistent demand for rental apartments.

Next comes Palm Beach County, whose RCI score grew from 74.5 last summer to 84.1 during peak rental season. Staying within the state in the westernmost area of the Florida panhandle, renters are seeing increased competition for apartments in Pensacola. The overall cost of living here is 11% lower than the state average and 13% lower than the national average, which makes renting an attractive option for many locals and newcomers. Pensacola’s RCI score gained 9.5 points to reach 74.1 in peak rental season.

Browse the maps below to see the rental competitiveness in other regions during the moving rush:

Methodology

To compile this report, RentCafe.com’s research team analyzed Yardi Systems apartment data across 137 rental markets in the U.S. The data comes directly from market-rate large-scale multifamily properties of at least 50 units. Fully affordable multifamily properties were excluded.

The markets were ranked based on a market competitive score. To calculate each market’s score, we ranked them according to five metrics and their averages for April through June 2024: apartment occupancy rate; average total days vacant; prospective renters per vacant unit; renewal lease rate and share of new apartments completed during the same timeframe.

We then compiled an average ranking by assigning a percentage weight for each metric: 30% for apartment occupancy rate; 15% for average vacant days; 15% for prospective renters per vacant unit; 30% for renewal lease rate; and 10% for the share of new apartments.

In this study, the terms “market,” “area,” “metro,” and “location” are used interchangeably and are as defined by Yardi Matrix markets.

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